Episode 1237: Bedtime for Trout
Date June 29, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Jose Alvarado, Shohei Ohtani’s power and possible return as a hitter, Shane Bieber’s velocity, the minor-league breakouts of Chris Paddack and Colin Poche, FanGraphs readers vs. average fans, Brandon Nimmo’s latest HBP antics, the Mets’ recent struggles and Mets-fan fatalism, the recoveries of the Reds and Wilmer Font, what teams would trade to enter the awful AL Central, Edwin Jackson’s journey, the decline of the 2018 free-agent class, and more, then answer listener emails about Jonathan Holder, the thresholds for “qualifying” performance, Peter Moylan’s age and indecisive 2017, Randy Cesar’s record-setting hitting streak and the Astros’ player development, pitcher hitting vs. hitter pitching, a pitcher who can’t remember his previous pitch, Mike Trout with an early bedtime, listening to games without commentary, and “climbing” into the batter’s box, plus Stat Blasts about Waxahachie Swaps and the best single (and rookie) seasons by career sub-replacement players. Topics * Jonathan Holder * Qualifying * Randy Cesar * Astros player development * Pitchers playing positions * Danny Santana * Peter Moylan no decisions * Players out of place choice * Listening to a game without commentary * A forgetful pitcher * Mike Trout bedtime * “Climbing” into the box Intro The Blank Tapes, "Feels Like Summer" Outro Florence + The Machine, "June" Banter * Jose Alvarado played first base * Mike Trout hurt * Shohei Ohtani may start hitting * Shane Bieber and Chris Paddock * Zack Cozart * Brandon Nimmo called back again from another hit by pitch * The Mets front office * The Reds * The AL Central * Wilmer Font * Edwin Jackson * The 2018 free agent class follow up from episode 785 Email Questions * Nick: Jonathan Holder…. How?! This year was supposed to be all about “Robertson, Chapman, green, kahnle, and Betances’s” of the world.... here comes Holder who hasn’t given up an earned run since April 21st (26+ innings). He doesn’t flash plus speed like the other guys, and doesn’t seem to have any plus pitch. So how’s he doing this? Small sample? Generic bullpen guy who is a flash in the pan? What gives? * Michael: I've been tracking Brandon Nimmo's status for a while (okay, daily) and he only just technically 'qualified' for the leaderboards today June 21st. He's tops in the NL in wRC+ now, behind only Betts and Trout. Curious as to your thoughts on if this is still a meaningful distinction. (3.1 PA per team game) Obviously we need something to filter out guys with 40 PA, but once we get to late June you're losing guys like Nimmo who was part time to start the season, or early injuries guys that have plenty of PA but not 'enough'. There were MLB and team released graphics put out yesterday for things like OPS leaders that omitted Nimmo, but I feel like a more casual fan would've preferred to know Nimmo's right up there and doesn't really that it's 100 less PA. Especially when we have counting stats like WAR that assess value and take into account playing time, do we really need such a high bar for qualifying? * Steve (Houston): As an Astros fan I got excited when AA player Randy Cesar broke the AA record for longest hitting streak, which is now 41 and counting as of their All-Star break. The hitting numbers for this corner infielder look strong: 354/ 390/ 547. But this Dominican signee just reached AA in his sixth year in the minors. He broke the record set by Bobby Trevino who had a 37-game streak back in 1969 for the El Paso Sun Kings, whose major league career covered 40 at bats, a .225 average and a 0.1 WAR. (If the name seems familiar you are probably thinking of his brother Alex Trevino.) And Randy Cesar did not make a Fangraphs list of top Astros prospects last spring. So is a hitting streak any indication that he could turn into something bigger than he is now? * Matthew: Danny Santana's recent promotion led me to his b-ref page, and his year-by-year WAR totals. He had an excellent rookie year, with 3.9 WAR, but unfortunately he has since given almost all of it back in negative WAR. Four years later, his career WAR is just 0.2. So my question is: how unprecedented is this? Has a player ever been worth 4 WAR is rookie year, and finished his career with negative WAR? My guess would be a pitcher would be more likely because they're more volatile, so does that make Santana's case even more impressive? (sad, but impressive). * Sivan: I noticed that last year Peter Moylan pitched 59.1 innings and in a league-leading 79 games. Despite this, his win-loss record was... 0-0. What's the record for most innings or games pitched in a season without a single decision? I know, we're not supposed to care about pitching wins and losses, but this is a weird chance event that's still, I think, pretty fun. Also - and maybe this is in fact more interesting - Peter Moylan is quietly the oldest player in the NL. If nobody older appears in the NL this year, seeing as his birthday is in December he'll be the first oldest player in either league under 40 since Ron Fairly was 39 in 1978. You have to go back to the 19th century to find a league without someone at least 38. * Jacob: With how much talk there has been about the DH and specifically pitcher hitting on the podcast in recent weeks, me and a friend have been having a specific debate. Let's say there is a situation where it's the 9th inning with the bases loaded and two out, would you rather have a pitcher batting, or a position player pitching? Some quick stats to help out: Pitchers batting line as of 6/24: .109/.141/.138 for a .279 OPS and a tOPS+ of -22 over 2432 PAs. Position Players pitching is a much smaller sample, but as of 6/24: 17 ER in 17.2 IP for an 8.66 ERA, a 34% strikeout-rate, and a 68% walk-rate. They hold opposing hitters to a .983 OPS, which is about equal to Freddie Freeman's OPS. So which would you rather have? * Josh: This is probably a weird question, but when y'all watch games (which I'd imagine you do very frequently), do you listen to broadcasters or are you usually doing other things at the same time? I watch a few games a day (including the team I follow), and very rarely do I turn on the sound to listen to the commentators talk, I usually listen to music or will be watching other things at the same time, but I'm pretty sure I'm one of the only people do does this. Ironically I plan on going into baseball broadcasting and journalism (currently high school senior). Just wanted to know about how you two do it since I know you also watch a good amount. * Kyle: What if pitchers had some kind of amnesia, where they couldn't remember any previous plate appearances or the pitch they just threw. How would it affect their arsenals, would they only throw fastballs? Would it eliminate the effects of tunneling? Assuming they didn't just throw fastballs, would they be even better because they would have no discernible pattern and be less predictable? Assume that catchers and managers/coaches would have the same affliction or not be calling pitches. * Sean: I’ve been thinking about the conversations teams are having about player self-care (like proper rest, nutrition, relaxation, etc.) as a way to ensure their players are at peak performance on the field. What if, as these ideas continued to be explored, Mike Trout completely and totally bought into the importance of a proper sleep cycle, and decides that he has a strict bedtime of 10 o’clock PM, local time? In order to do this, Trout states that he needs to be off the field by 9 o’clock at night. How much does this effect Trout’s value. Obviously afternoon games wouldn’t be an issue, and presumably there might be some sort of effect where Trout’s performance is better when he is on the field, but you wouldn’t have Trout for some incredibly high leverage innings, and he would be almost a non-factor in the playoffs. How much do you think this changes Trout’s value and perception. * Mitch: On the Fox broadcast of tonight's Yankees/Mets game, Didi Gregorius was just described as "climbing" into the batter's box. How different would baseball be if the chalk lines defining the batter's box were raised by a few inches? What if the batter's boxes were raised by a few inches, so guys would have to go down a step as they ran to first? Statblast * Jeff looks at Waxahachie Swaps, inspired by Jose Alvarado playing first base before returning to the mound. ** There have been no games where a pitcher played catcher temporarily. ** Other positions: 1B (20 games), 2B (3 games), SS (1 game), 3B (10 games), LF (23 games), CF (7 games), RF (16 games). ** Other roles: Pinch hitter and continues as pitcher (536 games), pinch runner and continues as pitcher (114 games), DH and continues as pitcher (never). * Ben looks at career sub-replacement players. ** Highest rookie WAR for a player that ended up finishing career negative WAR is 3 WAR, by Bob Gilkes (1887), he ended up with −1.1 WAR. For modern players, Alex Cintron was worth 2.7 WAR in 2003 and ended his career at −2.2 WAR. ** Highest single season WAR for any player that ended up in the negative for a career is 5.1, by Cito Gaston he retired with −0.8 WAR. Notes * Chris Paddock has a strikeout minus walk rate of 43% in 46 innings. (79 strikeouts, 4 walks.) * The top six names being searched on FanGraphs at recording time: Zach Eflin, Shane Bieber, Max Muncy, Shin-soo Choo, Mike Trout, and Jimmy Yacabonis. * Brandon Nimmo had three plate appearances on June 24. He was hit by a pitch all three times, though the first HBP was called back because he didn't try to get out of the way. In his third PA, he was hit on the hand and had to leave the game. * Wilmer Font has ERA’s of 11.2 (Dodgers), 14.5 (A’s), and 1.64 (Rays), for the 3 teams he has played for THIS SEASON. * Edwin Jackson has now tied the record held by Octavio Dotel, making a big league start for 13 teams. * AL Central teams have been outscored by 1.2 runs per game by non divisional opponents. Ben calculates that moving to the AL Central for the rest of the season would be worth 2 to 3 wins to the A's, or the equivalent of a 5-win player, given that the season is half-over. * The 2018 free agent class looked a lot better in 2015. * Ben has a graph that tracks the performance of 4-WAR players in the years after their 4-WAR year. "That line trends down really, really quickly." They regress quickly to the mean. * Jeff doesn't use the qualified threshold often, choosing to set a minimum based on how far we are into the season. Ben acknowledges that the qualified threshold is arbitrary, but it's valuable for its consistency, and the fact that fewer players qualify reflects how the game has changed. * Randy Cesar was rated as a fringe prospect. Ben acknowledges that a 41-game hitting streak is good, but it doesn't change things much. * Peter Moylan is the oldest player in the NL and he is under 40. * Randy Choate pitched 80 games in 2012 with no decision. Peter Moylan is in second place by number of games. * Larry Andersen pitched 79.2 innings for the Mariners in 1982 with no decision. Peter Moyland is in fourth place by number of innings. * The NL team with the highest WRC+ for pitchers is the Phillies, with 2. * Jeff and Ben both choose the position player pitching the high-leverage situation. The position player pitcher can get assistance from the defense to help get the out. The stats for position players pitching are misleading because the other team isn't trying very hard. Even for pitchers batting, the opposing pitcher usually lets up a little. Jeff realizes that pitchers never bat against closers, which makes him choose the position player pitching without hesitation. * Ben jokes that Josh's "weird question" is not even in the top 30% of weird questions they've gotten. * Ben agrees with Carson Cistulli that he misses the commentary when it's not there, even if he's not paying attention to it. Jeff agrees that "I don't really listen to the announcers for the words they're saying" but he's accustomed to the noise they make. * Even if the pitcher has no memory of earlier pitches, they can still make decisions based on the count. Jeff is concerned that there must be lead in the water or something to cause mass amnesia. * An early-bedtime Mike Trout would have to leave the game in the sixth inning, if not sooner. Jeff says, "This would be very, very bad news for the Angels, and he'd probably still lead the team in wins above replacement." * A raised batters box would discourage batters from stepping outside the box when batting. Sliding into home plate would be impossible. Players would injure themselves tripping over the lines. Ben and Jeff cannot think of any advantage to making this change. Links * Episode 1237: Bedtime for Trout * Jeff’s post about the Rays’ Waxahachie Swap * Story about Ohtani’s BP power * Jeff’s post about Colin Poche * Jeff’s post about predicting second-half records * Ben’s post about the AL Central * Jeff Passan’s 2015 article about the 2018 FA class * 2015 episode about the 2018 FA class, Episode 785. * Ben’s article about the 2018 FA class Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes